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Archive for the ‘Oscars & Awards’ Category

Last year, shortly before the Oscars I wrote about how I thought Green Book was in with a real shout of winning the best picture Oscar Because of the way the best picture is voted for, it can be seen that the most popular film, doesn’t necessarily win, it is more that the least unpopular movie wins.  A quick recap on how voting works:  In other categories the voter picks their favourite and the person/people/movie with the most votes wins. In the Best Picture poll however, each voter ranks the films from favourite to least favourite.  All the votes are counted and if a film achieves over 50% of the vote it wins.  If however there is no clear winner, the film to achieve the lowest number of votes (or number one picks) is eliminated.  The vote is recounted; the second place pick of anyone who voted for the eliminated film is now elevated to the first choice.  This process is continually repeated until one film achieves over half the ballot and is declared winner.

Thus the least unpopular movie triumphs.  Green Book probably wasn’t the film to get the most number one picks, but it probably got a lot of 2nd, 3rd or even fourth place picks.  The complication this year is that it’s a really strong field, with no obvious Green Book.  The closest is probably either Ford v Ferrari, or Little Women.  Another curveball, Netflix.   It is often suggested that lots of voters don’t go to the movies so haven’t seen all they have voted for.  Sure, they get screeners of nominated films, but is there a higher chance that the will already have seen a movie on a screening platform like Marriage Story and The Irishman.  They we have the Hollywood effect, Hollywood has no vanity and doest vote for movies about itself does it?  Films about films and the industry tend to do well, and Once upon a Time in Hollywood is a real love letter to the town and the industry.  Joker and Jojo Rabbit may be just a little to divisive and Parasite has the massive battle of subtitles to overcome.

So who will win? who knows, and who really cares? The true merit of a film is how much the viewer enjoys it, not how many awards it wins, or how much money it makes!  With this in mind, here is my ranking the best picture nominations from favourite to least favourite:

  1. Once upon a Time in HollywoodOnce_Upon_a_Time_in_Hollywood_poster
  2. ParasiteParasite
  3. 19171917
  4. Jojo RabbitJojo Rabbit
  5. The IrishmanThe Irishman
  6. Marriage StoryMarriage Story
  7. Ford v FerrariFord v Ferrari
  8. Little WomenLittle Women
  9. Jokerjoker

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For my second post about the Oscars today: I recently had a conversation about the Oscars, where said after Roma, the favourite (the bookies  favourite, not the movie called The Favourite), Green Book is the film most likely film to win best picture.  This was met with derision as the people I was talking to said The Favourite And a few other nominated films) is better than Green Book.  While I agree that it is a better film, and may get more 1st place votes, it may not win. While the other categories are a simple vote, five nominees, tick a box for your favourite, the best picture is decided by a preferential ballot.  Essentially the same as a single transferable ballet used in some elections. Oscars

Essentially, a movie needs to achieve over 50% of vote.  To achieve this, each voter has to rank the movies in order of favourite (1 to 8 this year).  If more than half of voters pick a film as their number one choice, it wins.  If no film achieves this, the lowest ranked film is eliminated.  The votes that went to the lowest ranked film are transferred to the next highest ranked film on each ballot paper.  This process is continued until one film achieves over half the ballot. GreenBook

Green book is the type of film that could pick up a lot of 2nd and 3rd place votes.  The same could be true of Bohemian Rhapsody and A Star Is Born where The Favourite and BlacKkKlansman are probably more divisive and polarising.  I suspect Vice and Black Panther are making up the numbers.  And why do I not mind if Green Book wins?  Because despite a backlash and reports to the contrary, it is an excellent film and I really liked it.  When I did my own ranking of nominated films last month it came in fourth behind Roma, The Favourite, and BlacKkKlansman.  On any given day it could creep up to third.  oscar the best picture ranked

To add to the confusion, While Roma is favourite to win best picture, it may miss out on Best Foreign Language Film.  A category with possibly the fairest voting process.  There is no guarantee that anyone voting for best picture (or any other Oscar) has actually seen the film.  Except the Best Foreign Language Film, where not only must they watch the films, but must watch them how intended, in a cinema.  The nominated films are selected by the Foreign Language Film Award Committee (who watch all the submitted films).  So called “screener” DVD’s are not used in this category, any Academy members wishing to vote must attend an official screening of all five nominated films. Roma

Cards on the table, I have only seen two of this year’s nominated films, Roma and Cold war, I love them both.  While Roma is the better film, I would love to see the lesser seen Cold War win.  Given the way they are voted for the popular film doesn’t always win, just remember Amélie lost out to No Man’s Land, and Pans Labyrinth to The Lives of Others!

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A couple of weeks ago I ranked the Oscar nominees by order of my preference.   Now it’s time to predict who will win: 

BEST PICTURE: ROMA – Gabriela Rodríguez and Alfonso Cuarón, ProducersRoma

DIRECTING Alfonso Cuarón – ROMAAlfonso-Cuaron-Director-Roma

WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY): BLACKKKLANSMAN – Written by Charlie Wachtel & David Rabinowitz and Kevin Willmott & Spike LeeCharlie Wachtel & David Rabinowitz and Kevin Willmott & Spike Lee

WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY): FIRST REFORMED – Written by Paul SchraderFIRST REFORMED - Written by Paul Schrader

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE: RAMI MALEK – Bohemian RhapsodyRAMI MALEK - Bohemian Rhapsody

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE: GLENN CLOSE – The WifeGLENN CLOSE - The Wife

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE: MAHERSHALA ALI – Green BookMAHERSHALA ALI - Green Book

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE: REGINA KING – If Beale Street Could TalkREGINA KING - If Beale Street Could Talk

ANIMATED FEATURE FILM: SPIDER-MAN: INTO THE SPIDER-VERSESpider-Man Into the Spider-Verse poster

CINEMATOGRAPHY Alfonso Cuarón – ROMAalfonso cuaron

COSTUME DESIGN: Sandy Powell – THE FAVOURITESandy Powell - THE FAVOURITE

FILM EDITING: VICE – Hank CorwinVICE - Hank Corwin

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM: ROMA – MexicoRoma

MUSIC (ORIGINAL SCORE): IF BEALE STREET COULD TALK – Nicholas BritellNicholas Britell

MUSIC (ORIGINAL SONG): SHALLOW from A Star Is Born; Music and Lyric by Lady Gaga, Mark Ronson, Anthony Rossomando and Andrew Wyatt76th Annual Golden Globe Awards, Press Room, Los Angeles, USA - 06 Jan 2019

PRODUCTION DESIGN: THE FAVOURITE – Production Design: Fiona Crombie & Set Decoration: Alice FeltonFiona Crombie Alice Felton

SOUND EDITING: BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY – John Warhurst and Nina HartstoneJohn Warhurst and Nina Hartstone

SOUND MIXING: FIRST MAN –  Jon Taylor, Frank A. Montaño, Ai-Ling Lee and Mary H. Ellis- Jon Taylor, Frank A. Montaño, Ai-Ling Lee and Mary H. Ellis

VISUAL EFFECTS: AVENGERS: INFINITY WAR – Dan DeLeeuw, Kelly Port, Russell Earl and Dan SudickVISUAL EFFECTS AVENGERS INFINITY WAR

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The last of my series ranking the Oscar nominated films. – DIRECTING NOMINEES Nominees ranked in my order of preference:

  1. ROMA Alfonso Cuarón
  2. THE FAVOURITE  Yorgos Lanthimos
  3. COLD WAR Paweł Pawlikowski
  4. BLACKKKLANSMAN Spike Lee
  5. VICE Adam McKayRanking Oscar Nominations BEST DIRECTOR

And the omissions that I think deserved a nomination:

  1. LEAVE NO TRACE Debra Granik
  2. A QUIET PLACE John Krasinski
  3. WIDOWS Steve McQueenBEST DIRECTOR the omissions

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Cinematography  Nominees ranked in my order of preference

  1. ROMA Alfonso Cuarón
  2. COLD WAR Łukasz Żal
  3. THE FAVOURITE Robbie Ryan
  4. A STAR IS BORN Matthew Libatique
  5. not ranked NEVER LOOK AWAY Caleb Deschanel*Ranking Oscar Nominations CINEMATOGRAPHY
*Not ranked as not seen. No UK release date yet

The omissions that I think deserved a nomination 

  1. IF BEALE STREET COULD TALK James Laxton
  2. WILDLIFE Diego García
  3. WIDOWS Sean BobbittRanking Oscar Nominations CINEMATOGRAPHY Omissions

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Original Screenplay Nominees ranked in my order of preference:

  1. ROMA written by Alfonso Cuarón
  2. THE FAVOURITE written by Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara
  3. FIRST REFORMED written by Paul Schrader
  4. GREEN BOOK written by Nick Vallelonga, Brian Currie, Peter Farrelly (yes, that Peter Farrelly!)
  5. VICE written by Adam McKayWRITING ADAPTED &ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Adapted Screenplay Nominees ranked in my order of preference:

  1. IF BEALE STREET COULD TALK written for the screen by Barry Jenkins
  2. BLACKKKLANSMAN written by Charlie Wachtel & David Rabinowitz and Kevin Willmott & Spike Lee
  3. CAN YOU EVER FORGIVE ME? screenplay by Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty
  4. THE BALLAD OF BUSTER SCRUGGS written by Joel Coen & Ethan Coen
  5. A STAR IS BORN screenplay by Eric Roth and Bradley Cooper & Will FettersWRITING ADAPTED and ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY omissions

The omissions that I think deserved a nomination (both original and adapted):

  1. THE DEATH OF STALIN written by Armando Iannucci, David Schneider, Ian Martin, and Peter Fellows
  2. SPIDER-MAN: INTO THE SPIDER-VERSE screenplay by Phil Lord, and Rodney Rothman
  3. LEAVE NO TRACE screenplay by Debra Granik, and Anne Rosellini
  4. WIDOWS screenplay by Gillian Flynn, and Steve McQueen

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Best Supporting Actress Nominees ranked in my order of preference:

  1. RACHEL WEISZ – The Favourite
  2. REGINA KING – If Beale Street Could Talk
  3. EMMA STONE – The Favourite
  4. AMY ADAMS – Vice
  5. MARINA DE TAVIRA – RomaACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

And the omissions that I think deserved a nomination:

  1. CLAIRE FOY – First Man
  2. TONI COLLETTE – Hereditary
  3. CYNTHIA ERIVO – BAD TIMES AT THE EL ROYALEACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE omissions

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Best Supporting Actor Nominees ranked in my order of preference:

  1. RICHARD E. GRANT – Can You Ever Forgive Me?
  2. MAHERSHALA ALI – Green Book
  3. SAM ELLIOTT – A Star Is Born
  4. ADAM DRIVER – BlacKkKlansman
  5. SAM ROCKWELL – ViceOscar ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE Ranked.jpg

And the omissions that I think deserved a nomination:

  1. BEN FOSTER – Leave No Trace
  2. JAKE GYLLENHAAL – Wildlife
  3. MICHAEL B. JORDAN – Black PantherOscar ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE Omissions.jpg

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Best Actor nominees ranked in my order of preference: 

  1. OLIVIA COLMAN – The Favourite
  2. GLENN CLOSE – The Wife
  3. MELISSA MCCARTHY – Can You Ever Forgive Me?
  4. LADY GAGA – A Star Is Born
  5. YALITZA APARICIO – RomaOscar BEST ACTRESS.jpg

And the omissions that I think deserved a nomination:

  1. CHARLIZE THERON – Tully
  2. CAREY MULLIGAN – Wildlife
  3. THOMASIN McKENZIE – Leave No TraceOscar BEST ACTRESS OMISSIONS.jpg

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Best Actor nominees ranked in my order of preference:

  1. CHRISTIAN BALE – Vice
  2. RAMI MALEK – Bohemian Rhapsody
  3. VIGGO MORTENSEN – Green Book
  4. BRADLEY COOPER – A Star Is Born

not ranked – WILLEM DAFOE – At Eternity’s Gate*Oscar ACTORS IN A LEADING ROLE Ranked.jpg

* Willem Dafoe is not ranked as I have not seen At Eternity’s Gate, and won’t until its UK release a month after the Oscars.

And the omissions that I think deserved a nomination:

  1. ETHAN HAWKE – First Reformed
  2. BRADY JANDREAU – The Rider
  3. JOAQUIN PHOENIX – You Were Never Really HereOscar BEST ACTOR OMISSIONS.jpg

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