Archive for March, 2022

In 2019 I posted about how I thought Green Book would win the best picture (it did), and not the bookies favourite, Roma.  For the same reason, I believe CODA and Belfast have as much chance of winning as the bookies favourite Power of the Dog.  This is not to say any one of the movies is the best film of the year, my personal favourite is Dune, but even that can not be considered “The Best” as art is far too subjective to say one thing is better than another. 

The important thing to remember about Best Picture, is that the nomination and voting process is different to the other categories.  It is the only category in which every member of the Academy is eligible to submit a nomination and vote on the final ballot.  But more important than this is the vote itself.  In all other categories voters simply tick the box for their favourite; the best picture is decided by a preferential ballot (also known as: instant-runoff voting, ranked-choice voting, or single transferable vote), Essentially, a movie needs to achieve over 50% of vote.  To achieve this, each voter has to rank the movies in order of favourite.  If more than half of voters pick a film as their number one choice, it wins.  If no film achieves this, the lowest ranked film is eliminated.  The votes that went to the lowest ranked film are transferred to the next highest ranked film on each ballot paper.  This process is continued until one film achieves over half the ballot. 

The result of this, is that the film that gets the most first place votes, often doesn’t actually win.  For this reason, the none offensive middle of the road movie that gets lots of second and third place votes is more likely to win than the bolder more controversial movie. 

Drive My Car is favourite to win Best Foreign Language Film.  A category with possibly the fairest voting process.  There is no guarantee that anyone voting for best picture (or any other Oscar) has actually seen the film.  Except the Best Foreign Language Film, where not only must they watch the films, but must watch them how intended, in a cinema.  The nominated films are selected by the Foreign Language Film Award Committee (who watch all the submitted films).  So called “screener” DVD’s are not used in this category (not sure how covid has affected this), any Academy members wishing to vote must attend an official screening of all five nominated films.

If CODA does eventually win, I will be happy, as it is my second favourite of the nominated films I have seen, and accept Dune is both a genre picture that doesn’t fare well at the Oscars, but is also only half a movie.  Maybe Dune Part Two will do as well as Return f the King did despite being the weakest of the trilogy! 


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