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Archive for March 3rd, 2018

The Oscar Goes to?

Who will win the Best Picture Oscar? The smart money is still on Three Billboards, but there is always the chance of an upset.  One thing is certain, after last year’s debacle,  the presenters will go onstage with the correct envelope this year. Here is a brief roundup of the chances of each movie:

The Favourites

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri – Started out as early favourite experienced a mid race backlash from some audiences but has cleaned up in other top awards and is the clear favourite again. It still has its detractors so may fall victim of the voting system by picking up fewer second or third place votes. three billboards outside ebbing missouri poster

The Shape of Water – My personal favourite, was made favourite with some bookmakers after its release but it has fallen back behind Three Billboards since the BAFTAs.  As with BAFTA, Guillermo del Toro probably stands a better chance in the Best Director category.  Its best chance is that it is less divisive than Three Billboards so should pick up more second and third place votes. The Shape of Water Poster

The Contenders

Call Me by Your Name – The only nominated film I haven’t seen yet.  Quite simply, I haven’t heard a bad word said about it from audiences or critics, that has to count for something. call me by your name

Lady Bird – As we keep being told actors are the largest voting group within the academy and they supposedly vote for their own, will this manifest itself in a best picture win or for Greta Gerwig in the director category?  In the year of #MeToo it can’t help to be directed by female director, and in what feels like a time of change, a first time director too.  And let’s not forget, it’s also a great film.lady bird

The Dark-horses

The Post – A really solid, but not an exceptional film, but it has a very prescient message.  It will get votes, I can hear cries of “they don’t make them like that anymore” from “traditional voters”.  Like Argo a few years ago, it will pick up lots of second and third places on the preferential ballot; given the people involved in making it: Hanks, Streep, Spielberg, it could also be the go-to movie for voters who didn’t bother watching some/all of the nominated films.  Finally, it is the film that will lose the least when viewed on a screener, rather than projected.   the post

Get Out – Very highly regarded in the industry, when being interviewed and asked about films they have enjoyed recently, many actors and directors have said Get Out.  On the downside comedy and horror don’t do well in this category and this is both comedy and horror!get out

Making Up The Numbers

Dunkirk – Great film, but it feels more like a great achievement in directing, a category that it is also nominated in.  I also wonder if a WWII movie without American characters will drum up much interest with the American academy? Dunkirk poster

Phantom Thread – Possibly Paul Thomas Anderson’s best film, but too understated for big awards and it has no “Oscar Buzz”.Phantom-thread-poster

Darkest Hour – As with Darkest Hour, it is a WWII movie set before America joined the war, it is also the weakest movie on the list.  It should however be a shoe-in for best actor Gary Oldman. darkest hour

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